The new 12-team College Football Playoff picture looks a lot different after yet another chaotic Saturday closed the regular season.

The playoff picture might also look a little more clear.

The Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3 overall) moved up two spots to No. 11 in Tuesday’s updated CFP rankings after their 28-14 win over the Auburn Tigers, and after the Miami Hurricanes fell 42-38 at Syracuse with a trip to the ACC Championship Game on the line.

Miami (10-2) was ranked one spot below Alabama at No. 12 in the new rankings, with the Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) at No. 13 and the South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) at No. 14. With Miami’s loss, the Hurricanes’ playoff hopes are essentially dead, at least based on comments from CFP chairman Warde Manuel.

In an appearance on ESPN after Tuesday’s rankings reveal, Manuel said that the order of Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina was “set” and would not change Sunday when the final rankings are announced and the full 12-team playoff field is revealed.

Manuel also explained why Alabama edged out Miami in the eyes of the selection committee.

“What it came down to is, Alabama is 3-1 against current Top 25 teams, and Miami is 0-1,” Manuel told ESPN’s Rece Davis. “Alabama is 6-1 against teams above .500, and Miami is 4-2. Both have had some losses that weren’t what they wanted out of those games. But in the last three games, Miami has lost twice. So for us, in evaluating their body of work, we felt that Alabama got the edge over Miami.”

There will be the usual array of carnival-barkers over the committee’s decision to back Alabama over Miami here, but the bottom line is that the Hurricanes won’t jump the Crimson Tide at this late juncture if what Manuel says is true.

A week ago, the Crimson Tide were on the outside looking in following their 24-3 loss to the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman. While Alabama fell six spots in last week’s rankings to No. 13, the Tide were one of the “first teams out,” meaning there was still a path to the playoff with a little help.

Sure enough, Alabama’s win over Auburn, coupled with Miami’s loss, moved the Tide into the final at-large berth.

RELATED: Complete CFP Rankings 1-25 entering Championship Saturday

Does that mean Alabama is etched in stone for a playoff berth? No. If Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers (9-3) knock off the SMU Mustangs (11-1) in the ACC Championship Game Saturday in Charlotte, Clemson would win the league’s automatic playoff berth as a Power Four conference champion.

That would leave SMU with two losses — severely damaged, yes, but perhaps not necessarily out of the playoff picture. For the committee, a possible debate between a three-loss Alabama team and a two-loss SMU could be a different story than when comparing Alabama’s resume to Miami’s (more on that a little further on).

For now, here’s a look at what the bracket for the full 12-team field would look like if the playoff started today, as well as who Alabama and other playoff teams would face.

Projected Conference Champions, First-Round Byes

No. 1 seed: Oregon Ducks

Oregon College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 1

Oregon Current College Football Playoff Seed: No. 1

Oregon 2024 Record: 12-0 overall, 9-0 Big Ten

Oregon has been the No. 1 team in the rankings all along. The Ducks are in the driver’s seat and will face Penn State in the Big Ten title game Saturday night in Indianapolis hoping to maintain their spot atop the rankings as well as the No. 1 overall seed.

No. 2 seed: Texas Longhorns

Texas College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 2

Texas Current College Football Playoff Seed: No. 2

Texas 2024 Record: 11-1 overall, 7-1 SEC

Texas defeated Texas A&M, 17-7, in the first meeting between the two bitter rivals since 2011. The Longhorns now face the Georgia Bulldogs in a rematch for the SEC championship in Atlanta after falling 30-15 to Kirby Smart’s team on Oct. 19 in Austin. Both Texas and Georgia are a lock for the playoff regardless of who wins Saturday.

No. 3 seed: SMU Mustangs

SMU College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 8

SMU Current College Football Playoff Seed: No. 3

SMU 2024 Record: 11-1 overall, 8-0 ACC

The Mustangs can stamp their ticket to the playoff with a win over Clemson in the ACC title game. Here’s where things could get sticky. If the committee decides that conference title game losers outside of the SEC and Big Ten deserve special consideration for playing in games that leagues (and TV executives) want to maintain, will that impact Alabama’s hold on the last at-large berth? It’s anyone’s guess, but Tide fans might be wise to cheer for an SMU win Saturday.

No. 4 seed: Boise State Broncos

Boise State College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 10

Boise State Current College Football Playoff Seed: No. 4

Boise State 2024 Record: 11-1 overall, 7-0 MWC

Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos survived a way-too-close call against a two-win Wyoming team on Nov. 23 but closed the regular season with a 34-18 victory over Oregon State. How’s this for some real chaos? If UNLV (10-2, No. 20 CFP) were to slip past Boise State in this week’s Mountain West title game, do the Broncos have enough to stay in the playoff race? And if so, who would be squeezed out?

First Round CFP Matchups

No. 12 seed Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 5 seed Penn State Nittany Lions

Arizona State College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 15

Arizona State 2024 Record: 10-2 overall, 7-2 Big 12

Penn State College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 3

Penn State 2024 Record: 11-1 overall, 8-1 Big Ten

This would be a true home-field advantage for Penn State, pitting a storied college football program against a team the Nittany Lions would never bother to schedule in a regular season affair. Iowa State gets the Sun Devils’ spot in the playoff if they win the Big 12 title game out in “Jerrywood” (AT&T Stadium in Arlington).

No. 11 seed Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Alabama College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 11

Alabama 2024 Record: 9-3 overall, 5-3 SEC

Notre Dame College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 4

Notre Dame 2024 Record: 11-1 overall

Of all the potential first-round matchups, none would draw the attention this one would. Two college football blue bloods squaring off in South Bend (with possible Snowmageddon)? I’m getting ahead of myself and being a bit selfish here, but this is a matchup I’d love to see just due to the rich tradition and history of both programs.

Notre Dame fans would love to see their team knock the Crimson Tide out of a national title race after two Alabama beatdowns of the Irish since 2012. For Alabama fans old enough to remember the Tide’s somewhat torturous past in bowl games against Notre Dame teams of yesteryear, they’d love to see a win in South Bend for the first time after falling there in 1976 and 1987.

No. 10 seed Indiana Hoosiers at No. 7 seed Georgia Bulldogs

Indiana College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 10

Indiana 2024 Record: 11-1 overall, 8-1 Big Ten

Georgia College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 5

Georgia 2024 Record: 10-2 overall, 6-2 SEC

With Ohio State and Miami losing Saturday, Georgia re-enters the top five of the CFP rankings after a thrilling and equally exhausting 8-OT win over Georgia Tech that wrapped up a playoff spot.

Indiana took a woeful Purdue (1-11) team to the woodshed, 66-0, in Bloomington on Saturday, but IU-Georgia could be one of the more lopsided matchups in the playoff field.

No. 9 seed Tennessee Volunteers at No. 8 seed Ohio State Buckeyes

Tennessee College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 7

Tennessee 2024 Record: 10-2 overall, 6-2 SEC

Ohio State College Football Playoff Ranking: No. 6

Ohio State 2024 Record: 10-2 overall, 7-2 Big Ten

A big cheer erupted inside Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday when Alabama fans learned of the Buckeyes’ loss to Michigan. That might seem a bit odd, given that the Wolverines were the ones who ended Alabama’s 2023 season back on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl, but Ryan Day officially has a Michigan problem.

One of the worst Michigan football teams we are likely to see in the NIL era came into Columbus as a 19.5-point underdog and won their fourth straight over Ohio State, who previously seemed a lock for the Big Ten title game.

For their part, Tennessee looked like it might fall prey to the upset bug early on at Vanderbilt when they fell behind 14-0. The Vols then out-scored the Commodores 36-9 the rest of the way to earn their spot in the playoff field.

First Teams Out

• No. 12 Miami Hurricanes (10-2)
• No. 13 Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
• No. 14 South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3)

CFP Quarterfinals

Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon Ducks vs. 8/9 Winner

Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. 7/10 Winner

Peach Bowl: No. 3 SMU Mustangs vs. 6/11 Winner

Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Boise State Broncos vs. 5/12 Winner